Opta predicted final 2024/25 Premier League table – Reassessed after Friday night results

With just over a week remaining in the 2024/25 Premier League season, the race for the final Champions League spots has intensified. Friday night’s matches have reshaped the landscape once again, prompting Opta to update its predicted final standings based on the latest results.

The finish line is in sight, and the battle among six clubs remains fierce, with each point now carrying immense weight.

On Friday evening, two key matches unfolded that influenced the table significantly. Tottenham Hotspur, lacking conviction and energy, suffered a predictable 2-0 defeat at Aston Villa.

Though Spurs managed to hold off Villa’s attack until the 59th minute, Ezri Konsa finally broke the deadlock. Boubacar Kamara sealed the win with a second goal in the 73rd minute, all but extinguishing Spurs’ already flickering hopes of a top-four finish.

Meanwhile, Manchester United put in a marginally improved display against a struggling Chelsea side, but the game delivered little excitement. Clear-cut chances were scarce on both ends, and the match seemed destined to end in a goalless draw.

That outcome would have favored clubs like Newcastle United, who are fighting for Champions League qualification.

However, Reece James produced a rare moment of quality in the 71st minute, setting up Marc Cucurella for the decisive goal, giving Chelsea a vital three points.

Following these results, the Premier League table on the morning of Saturday, May 17, 2025, shows just how tight the race has become. Arsenal leads the chasing pack for second place with 68 points, holding a narrow advantage over Newcastle United, who sit two points behind.

Three clubs—Newcastle, Chelsea, and Villa—are level on 66 points, separated only by goal difference. Manchester City follows closely with 65 points, while Nottingham Forest lags slightly behind on 62.

Crucially, Arsenal, Newcastle, City, and Forest each have a game in hand, which could significantly alter the final standings.

With such fine margins at play, Opta has reassessed its predictions for the final table after the most recent results, using its advanced simulation models to forecast the most probable outcomes for the final week of the season.

According to the updated projection, Arsenal is expected to secure second place with 72 points. Newcastle United is forecast to finish third on 69 points, narrowly ahead of Manchester City, who are predicted to end with 68.

Aston Villa and Chelsea are both projected to reach 67 points, with Villa slightly more likely to do so according to the data. However, if both sides do finish level on points, Chelsea’s superior goal difference would place them ahead.

Nottingham Forest’s hopes of a top-four finish appear to be fading fast. A frustrating draw with Leicester has left them with just five points from their last six matches. Opta now sees them ending the season in seventh on 64 points, three shy of a Champions League berth.

For Newcastle United, the path is straightforward: a win in either of their final two fixtures guarantees Champions League football next season. If they manage to win both, they could leapfrog Arsenal and claim second place outright.

Here’s a look at the remaining fixtures for the key clubs still in the hunt:

• Arsenal (68 points, GD +33): vs Newcastle (H), vs Southampton (A)
• Newcastle United (66 points, GD +23): vs Arsenal (A), vs Everton (H)
• Chelsea (66 points, GD +20): vs Forest (A)
• Aston Villa (66 points, GD +9): vs Manchester United (A)
• Manchester City (65 points, GD +24): vs Bournemouth (H), vs Fulham (A)
• Nottingham Forest (62 points, GD +12): vs West Ham (A), vs Chelsea (H)

The final week promises drama and unpredictability, with the slimmest of margins likely deciding which clubs will celebrate Champions League qualification and which will fall just short. Every pass, tackle, and goal from here on could prove decisive.