Predicting what will unfold at Newcastle United when the January transfer window opens is never easy, and this year feels even more unpredictable.
The club has a few clear needs, but securing the right deals could be far more complicated than expected. A young midfielder remains the priority, yet landing a player with the quality of Dutch talent Kees Smit will be difficult.
His growing reputation means Newcastle may face competition, high demands, and resistance from his current club. At the same time, adding full-back cover is proving tricky because anyone who joins already knows they will fall behind Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall in the hierarchy. That alone makes the position a hard sell.
While the focus is often on potential signings, outgoings could play an equally important role next month. Crystal Palace have suffered a long list of injuries, and it is still unclear whether they will push ahead with their interest in Joe Willock.
Frankfurt, meanwhile, have reignited their admiration for young forward Will Osula, so that situation is also worth following. Newcastle are not actively pushing players out, but several members of the squad are struggling for minutes, and that usually means loan discussions begin to heat up around this time of year.
One name that has now moved into the spotlight is Alex Murphy. The young Irish defender has been part of Eddie Howe’s first-team training group all season, but competitive minutes have been extremely limited.
His only appearance came as a late substitute in the Carabao Cup win over Bradford back in September. For a player at his stage of development, that is simply not enough to keep progressing, and it is no surprise he is seeking an opportunity to play regularly in the second half of the campaign.
According to Craig Hope of the Daily Mail, Murphy will hold talks with the club over the possibility of a January loan. The expectation is that another move to the EFL would be the most realistic path, especially after his spell at Bolton last season helped him take a noticeable step forward.
League football suits him, and Newcastle see value in exposing him to that environment again. But this decision is not as straightforward as it seems.
The major problem, and the one concern Howe reportedly has, is Newcastle’s lack of depth at full-back. The squad is well stocked with centre-backs and midfielders when everyone is fit, yet the full-back situation is far more delicate.
Lewis Hall is now the clear first-choice left-back, and his rapid improvement has been one of the bright spots of the season. Behind him, however, there is a worrying drop-off.
Dan Burn prefers playing centrally, where his physicality and experience are better used, and Matt Targett is currently out on loan at Middlesbrough. That leaves Newcastle short of natural cover on the left side of defence.
If Murphy leaves, the gap becomes even wider. It would leave Howe vulnerable to injuries or fatigue, especially with the busy schedule ahead. The club needs to protect Hall, not just because he is young, but because he plays in a demanding role that requires constant running, overlapping, and defensive recovery.
Relying too heavily on him over the next five months could create problems later in the season. Burn stepping back into left-back is not ideal anymore; the role has evolved, and his profile no longer fits the requirements of a modern full-back in Howe’s system.
This dilemma explains why Murphy’s loan is not guaranteed. Howe wants to support the young defender’s development, but he also has to protect the stability of the squad.
Newcastle’s season has already been disrupted by injuries in several key positions, and the coaching staff are determined to avoid weakening themselves further by allowing players to leave without having replacements lined up.
Ideally, the club would bring in another full-back during the window. Even a short-term signing would help balance the squad and free Murphy to gain consistent game time elsewhere.
Newcastle have been clever in recent windows, targeting young talent that fits the long-term project, but January often demands more practical decisions.
A reliable full-back who can step in when needed would allow Hall to rest when necessary, prevent Burn from being used out of position, and open the door for Murphy to continue his development in a more competitive environment.
For now, all options remain open. Murphy wants to play, Howe wants cover, and the club wants to strengthen smartly without overspending. The next few weeks will determine how those priorities align.
If Newcastle manage to bring in the right defensive support, Murphy’s loan could become one of the more straightforward moves of the window. If not, Howe may be forced to keep him close, even if it limits the youngster’s opportunities.
